SEBI Sets Guidelines for Market Makers on SME Exchanges

After allowing exchanges to set up separate trading platform for small and medium size companies, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has issued guidelines for SME (small and medium enterprises) exchanges with respect to market making activity. Sebi has now made market making process mandatory for SME scripts and has laid down terms for members of the exchange who will be willing to engage in market making activity.

The market makers would bring in more liquidity and continuity in buy/sell activity on the exchange. Market makers would be required to provide 2-way quote for 75% of the time in a day. The minimum depth of the quote shall be Rs 1 lakh. However, investors with holdings of value less than Rs 1 lakh shall be allowed to offer their holding to the market maker in that scrip, provided that he sells his entire holding in that scrip in one lot to the selling broker.

The new Sebi guidelines also limit the number of market makers for a particular script; it has been set to five market makers. Sebi has also set several qualifying criteiras for becoming market maker.

Alliances and Fronts for Fortune and Political Bargain

As India goes for polls, political parties are vying for electorate and even more for opponent political parities. Ever since alliances gained prominence in national governance, national parties have weakened. In last five years all the national parties, with exception of BSP, have lost their foothold and political might. This political development has made them increasingly dependent on regional parties.

This election, regional parties have gained a new prominence and notoriety in forming alliances some time multiple and confusing alliances. What is more atrocious about these alliances unlike the previous alliance formations like NDA/UPA, is that they have no agenda and political vision for this country nor do they intend to present the electorate with any vision document.

Parties don’t want to emphasize their development agenda as they are totally unsure of which political block they belong to, political parties such has BJD has created totally new political ideological dimension of “center-right-left” party where as NCP and RJD are toying with both right and left. Parties such as TDP, DMK,AIADMK, and numerous smaller parties with suffixes such as ‘lok dal’, “rastrawadi” and “samajwadi” don’t mind which party governs the nation if they get their political cut.

Then there is Communist block and BSP, who don’t mind anything about any political party if they are non-Congress and non-BJP. They have nothing do with the political ideology of such parties if they are willing to support their next government. No body seems to mind even if alliance partners are fighting each other unless their egos are satisfied. In some states BJP/Congress have to beg smaller parties to be allowed and accommodated with a few seats in such regions for promise of backing government at center.

This election almost every political party is worried about future of the party but not the country. Smaller regional parties have no vision for national development and they are not bothered either as their primary interest lies in the cabinet berth and sops for their region. None of them are interest in socio-economic plan of this country for next five years, which will benefit the nation as a whole and will percolate down to every state and region.

US Presidential Inuaguration and Market Gains

There is high expectation on Mr. Obama to deliver. Markets are banking on his economic proposals to revive the Wall-Street. Not all presidents have succeeded in matching the market expectations. If we look at look at the presidential inauguration since 1980s majority of presidents have given markets a respectable gain a year after their inaugurals.

Bill Clinton is the president who gave markets’ their biggest gain a year after his first presidential inauguration. It was whopping 28.9%, highest for any president sine 1980. he is the only president to have given markets positive gains in both terms as US president. Ronald Regan and George W Bush, are other two presidents who have been president twice. They are also the presidents who gave negative returns to the markets a year after inauguration of their first term. But they succeeded in giving markets a good gain a year after inauguration of their second term.

George W Bush has been the worst performers amongst all presidents since 1980s. Markets have gained only 7.4% a year after his 2005 presidential inauguration. His father George H W Bush had performed better, markets gained over 16% a year after his presidential inauguration in Jan 20, 1989.

It would be interesting to watch how markets perform during these turbulent times.

Sovereign Wealth Funds to Invest in India’s Oil Exploration Sector

E&Y report also lists China’s SWF as possible investor in India

Ernst & Young has come out with a new report that forecasts India will receive up to USD10 bn of investment in oil exploration and production sector. Interestingly, report also suggests that Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWFs) of Mid-east, Singapore and China would be making such future investments in India’s oil and gas exploration. Also, exploring there chances would be much reluctant Japanese Banking institutions, which so far don’t have a bigger presence in India.

SWFs are surprise entrant to the Indian exploration market. SWFs have been making huge investments in energy sector focused around Mid-east and Africa region but India was never on its target as most of the investment is directed towards securing it energy needs. E&Y has unexpectedly included SWFs from China, which have been in forefront of securing China’s growing energy need and have been competing with India on foreign acquisitions.

India opened its oil and gas exploration sector for private players through New Exploration and Licensing Policy in 1998, so far seven rounds have taken place and 207 blocks have been awarded to the participating companies. This has brought down the average unexplored acreage in India’s total sedimentary area to 15% in FY07 from 41% in FY '99.

Goldman Sachs, Macquarie Research rule out rate hike by RBI, expects interest rates to ease in early 2009

Goldman Sachs in its latest report has ruled out any hike in interest rate by the RBI, considering the current tightness in liquidity condition and expected decline in the inflation by early 2009. As per the report, the current tight liquidity and slow growth, suggests that the RBI may use the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) and the cash reserve ratio (CRR) to ease liquidity, hence any further hike by CRR is also ruled out. Further the investment major expects the RBI to have a rate cut in the January-March quarter of 2009, to spruce up growth, as the macro concern shifts from high inflation to falling growth. As per the report inflation is expected to drop considerably in early-2009, due to slowing demand and drop in commodity prices.

Macquarie research too expects the RBI to hold interest rate steady at present level at its next policy review on October 24. Macquarie also expects the RBI to cut interest rates in 2009 and the CRR for banks by around 200 bps. Earlier, Macquarie had earlier forecasted a 25 bps hike in the repo rate to 9.25%, but it had revised its forecast due to the global financial problems.

Plebiscite to solve farmer’s plight and land acquisition for industrialisation?

Maharashtra’s decision to hold plebiscite for MahaSEZ is radically different from WBengal’s decision on land allotment for Tata. This is evolutionary attempt in land acquisition policy for industrialisation. The news of plebiscite is bound to give sleepless nights for corporate, who will find it difficult to deal with the new situation. The new arrangement brings in a new party into the process.

The process gives farmers/land owners right to decide whether they would like to part of an industrial project or not. This is a good step in reducing the backlash over industrialisation in rural areas. It would also give farmers better say in rejecting any proposal to acquire land without a good and sustainable package.

However, there are also chances of manipulation of farmer’s interest as any misinformation would jeopardise interest of both stakeholders. Also unclear is what would happen when a minority of farmers oppose the project. The present policy provides that government will buy only 30% of total land for the project. Will government buy that small portion of land in case of opposition by farmers? This would add more uncertainty.

Government needs to bring in more clarity to the acquisition process, it should take notice of the new experiments and concepts, but until and unless government brings in new measures and rationalise the land acquisition, it will remain contentious issue.

BSNL IPO: Anti-privatisation or under-valuation?

Government and Trade unions are again at clash over mulling IPO of public sector telecom giant BSNL. Trade unions see this move as a step towards privastisation of BSNL and thus they are dead against the PSU going public. While the government insists that listing of BSNL is necessary for granting “Navaratna” status, union leaders feel otherwise. They point out “Navaratna” companies such as HAL and LIC, which are still not listed. Another reason for unions’ opposition is the past decisions by government of ultimately selling listed PSUs like VSNL and BALCO.

Unions are also using the VSNL/BALCO sale as argument for undervaluation. They have accused government of undervaluing the PSUs and are using case of BALCO sale to strengthen their argument. The government has valued BSNL at around $100 bn based on the Vodafone and HutchisonEssar deal. However, the unions are in opinion that BSNL is valued ten times more than the government valuation, which would put it at $1,000 bn. According to union’s estimation, the actual divestment of shares for the IPO collection should be 1% of BSNL shares not 10%.

The BSNL valuation funda becomes murky, as the government assessment based is based on some deal and some other company with less similarity to BSNL. Vodafone, unlike BSNL attracts customers that attach premium to the service offered by the service provider while, BSNL’s product offering is considered economical. BSNL also has large number of workforce and its productivity and efficiency yet to be determined. Its growth rate has not been as high as some private players in GSM market.


But, BSNL still is the largest telecom player and has virtual monopoly over wireline and rural telecom business, plus it is a big time player in long distance call and internet business. Its tower unit will attract huge valuation. Also, unions prefer companies to be valued on their assets rather than their net worth and business prospect. The government, which is in desperate need of funds will like go for IPO as early as possible but its one time friend and present nemesis, CPI & CPM, are bound to create ruckus over the issue of valuations.

Economic fallout of Trust Vote

Now that government is done with trust vote and markets are about to wind up the sentimental rally, it the time to ask the question will government take tough economic decision as desired by the markets?

The coalition’s new partner SP has much neither much knowledge nor much penchant to interfere in economic policy until unless someone ask them to do it. So, in past four years they were very much against insurance, retail and pensions reform, which communist were insisting. But, in the new context they seem to be more concerned about their economic benefactor, which implies strict no-no to FDI in retail which may benefit Mukesh ambani. Also, petroleum ministry will be mired by all sorts of lobbying.

DMK is happy with its RamSethu bargain and rest like JMM has no clue whatsoever with the kind of reforms will take place. That leaves us with Congress, which is driving the UPA now.

Congress only faces the problem of perception and it matters a lot before elections. The party is already seen a failure in the economic matters concerning “Aam Admi” and its slogan is more or less read as “Congress ka hath NOTE ke sath”. Markets and traders will all like to see every bit of legislation that can benefit the markets get passed on, specially the Pension reform, which will benefit the markets most. A push in the market will also add to Congress’ election coffer. But it is the million dollar question; will Congress face all criticism just before elections to push the markets?