ADB and S&P Stretches Govt on Either Side on Economic Recovery of India

Manmonhan Singh team which has been facing unrelenting question about country’s financial health received a shot in arm from one of the major financial institutions, ADB, about country financial condition. ADB described India’s economy as one with resilience amid global economic downturn. This will help government to ward-off questions relating to economy which government is finding hard to explain.

On the other hand, leading financial rating firm S&P has concluded that Indian economy will grow somewhere between 5.8% and 6.3% in 2009. This is much below the continuous claims of 7% growth by the government. S&P also forecasted that India will be on path of recovery by September this year, if economic scenario doesn’t deteriorate further. This is beyond the expectation and mark set by the government which wanted to reap the benefit of economic recovery during parliamentary polls this year.

Government is facing increasing number of questions for its economic mismanagement. Though, it expects last year’s farm wavier and pay-commission hike, which was not accounted in budget, to go down well with voters. But, opposition is already making case for financial negligence and with economic recovery would not happen as timed by the government; it would be tough for government to use this bait for voters.

India to Become an Important Market for Security Equipment Firms

With terrorism reaching a never before levels in the country and with mass transport systems acting as soft targets for criminal and terrorist activities, India is poised to become an important international spender in the global security market as per the latest report by Frost& Sullivan.

As per the report, the country’s homeland security spending is expected to total around $9.7 bn by 2016, with security of airports contributing to around $3.2 bn at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5%t. New analysis by the research firm on Indian Homeland Security Market, finds that the market earned revenues of $800 mn in 2007 and estimates this to reach over $1 bn in 2016.

Among other things, the latest Mumbai terror attacks has led to urgent call for formulation of more developed security measures to protect areas where there is a high level of civilian mobility. Mass transport systems are especially being seen as 'soft' targets for both criminal and terrorist activities. Intelligent and durable surveillance systems within 'rolling stock' are among the key revenue generators in this sector. Other technologies that will increase investment included low TCO, self-diagnosing CCTV systems, automatic wireless image downloads and innovative passenger screening technologies.

The increasing importance of air traffic couple with increase in small- to medium-size airports is also expected to enhance the demand for airport security measures. Key technologies include biometric electronic access control, passenger screening portals and explosive detection systems for baggage, as well as cutting-edge passenger processing systems.

However the report also says that foreign security firms that don’t have JV with a local partner in the country could face slow procurement trends, as an emphasis on developing the indigenous security industry and the prevalent dependence on manpower-intensive security measures could hamper security investment.

Telecommunications Post Highest Growth in Service Sector: FICCI Survey

The new FICCI Survey on service sector paints resilient picture of service sector in India. Telecommunication sector topped the survey as the three segments with biggest growth were wireless subscribers, internet subscribers and broadband subscribers; they witnessed growth of 50%, 26% and 87% (y-o-y) respectively. Railways, IT/software services and Entertainment & media were other major sectors that witnessed growth between 15% and 25% (y-o-y).

Organised retail and Housing finance are the two biggest surprises in the survey. Both these segments grew at 12% and 15% respectively thwarting the general assumption that these segments were doomed in the current economic scenario. Both these segments suffered heavily in stock markets citing demand constrains. News that players in Organised Retail have started restructuring their businesses also added to this perception.

Growth in earnings from Foreign Tourists during Apr-Nov period is another surprising revelation of the survey. Earning from foreign tourist grew at 16.5% (y-o-y) despite numerous terrorist attacks that took place in the same period of time, indicating foreign tourists were undeterred by terrorists. The survey covered 31 service sector segments and gauged their performances during Apr-Nov 2008 period over corresponding period of time.

US Worrying Indian Auto Components Manufacturers

Indian auto component manufacturing is going through tough times. Domestic demand has fallen and exports have dried up, manufacturers are finding it hard to stay afloat. As per a new estimate by Federation of Indian Micro, Small & Medium Enterprise (FISME), some 4,000 ancillary units are on verge of closure making 200,000 jobs redundant.

With the big three American automotive giants in dock, things are looking bleak for auto component exporters. If two of the big three file for the bankruptcy then many of Indian OEM players would be left in lurch without any payment for their exports. General Motors, biggest export destination for Indian auto components account for USD 500 mn worth of exports. If it goes down, it won’t just hit the small players it will hit big players of the Indian auto components market.

ECGC( Export Credit Guarantee Corp) has already frozen credit risk insurance cover to all auto component manufacturers who supply components to big three in US. This has aggravated the problems of component manufacturers specially the small manufacturers who can’t take risks like large firms and are at inevitable loss of business. According to FISME, almost 25% of SMEs in auto component manufacturing have NPAs and this is expected to increase to 50% in near future. The fact that these SMEs account for almost 50% of India’s total auto components exports speaks about the troubled times ahead for the industry.

Government to Relax ECB Norms

At a time when funding has become increasingly difficult for corporates across the globe for expanding capacity and growing businesses, since global economic slowdown made the lenders apprehensive of funding projects. The government is expected to relax norms, as early as next week, to make it easier for domestic companies to raise money through External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs), in a bid to boost a slowing economy,

Among measures recommended by the committee of secretaries include, permitting realty firms to tap ECBs, relaxing borrowing norms for non-banking finance companies (NBFCs), increasing the ECB limit 50 per cent to $750 mn under the automatic route (without RBI’s approval and raising the price ceiling at which overseas loans can be raised.

At present, real estate firms are not allowed to tap the ECB route and NBFCs are allowed to borrow within guidelines specified by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). For the real estate sector, norms could be relaxed only for integrated township projects, realty firms were demanding infrastructure status for real estate apart from using ECB proceeds without restriction.

Earlier in the year in October, the government had permitted companies to use the ECB route up to $500 mn per financial year for rupee expenditure under the automatic route (see table). In addition, the India Infrastructure Finance Company Ltd (IIFCL) was allowed to raise Rs 10,000 cr of tax-free bonds and function as a refinancer for the sector.

Project awards by authorities such as the National Highways Authority of India have come to a virtual standstill because of, among other things, concerns over the viability of projects and high interest rates. Meanwhile, the government has decided to revise upwards cost estimates of 60 highway projects worth Rs 70,000 cr by up to 20%, to help road developers borrow more funds and boost road building activity across the country

The government is also expected to relax the pricing allowed for borrowing foreign exchange loans by raising the spread or premium charged over the international interest rate benchmark, the London Interbank offered rate (Libor). At present, a company cannot pay more than 300 bps over Libor on loans for three to five years and not more than 500 bps over Libor for loans above five years.

FICCI demands additional stimulus, fiscal package, criticizes US move for duty cuts

The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) asked the central government for more fiscal measures to tackle the current economic downturn, along with demanding more rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ease liquidity crisis and reduce cost of borrowing. The fiscal relief asked include, cutting the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) further to 4.5%, Repo Rate to 5%, Reverse Repo Rate to 4% and Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) to 22% along with the all important reduction in bank interest rate by 100 bps.

Growth stimulus is now very important according to the industry body, especially with the slow down happening in the domestic economy, and inflation worries subsiding. The industry body has also asked for further rate cuts in home loans, re-imposition of countervailing duty and higher import levies.

For the housing sector the association has sought to raise the upper limit of loans to Rs 50 lakh in the existing Rs 5-20 lakh slab lower rates of interest of 9.25%, besides cutting the rates to 6-7% from 8.5% for home loans below Rs 5 lakh.
For the domestic steel industry, the association has asked for restoration of countervailing duty on imported steel items along with raising import duty to 15 % from the existing 5% to "prevent dumping" of cheaper products in India.

For the textile sector, the chamber asked for deferment of 8th quarterly installments of principal amounts on loans taken by the industry, besides asking for restoration of drawback rates that prevailed before reduction in September 2008.

Earlier this week, FICCI had sharply criticized the US’s move to seek zero duty commitments on sectors such as chemicals from India and other developing countries. The association further said that US-based National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), which has been consistently pressing for sectorals, has recently stated that WTO Ministerial Meeting must await consensus on sectoral agreements.

Sectoral talks relate to complete slashing of import duties in 14 identified industrial sectors. These cuts are additional to the proposed formula-based import duty cuts that every country will have to undertake, if the Doha deal is inked. Indian industry is wary of pressure by the US to make sectoral talks mandatory, as it could mean slashing of import duty on key sectors, including chemicals, industrial machinery as well as electrical and electronic goods. This would mean that cheap goods from abroad could flood the domestic market, causing problem to the Indian industry.

PSB hail Home Loan Package, Industry Disagree & Consumers Wait-n-Watch!!

After weeks of speculation and months of wait, a hint of hope has emerged for borrowers. In a coordinated effort, public sector banks (PSBs) put a cap on interest rate charged on fresh home loans of up to Rs.5,00,000 at 8.50% from December 16 and announce a slew of measures to stimulate credit delivery to housing and micro, small and medium enterprises sector. PSBs expect to give loans worth around Rs15,000-20,000 cr under this package. Among major other measures initiated:

· Time Frame - The special home loan package would be applicable for new loans sanctioned up to June 30, 2009
· Switch Facility - Loans up to Rs.5,00,000 will be offered at a fixed rate of 8.50% for five years after which the borrower can switch to a floating rate without paying any charge
· Loan size between Rs 5-20 lakhs - PSBs will also not charge more than 9.25% on home loans of Rs.5 lakh-20 lakh having tenure of up to 20 years
· Processing fee - Banks will not to charge any processing fees and pre-payment charges for loans up to Rs.20 lakh, and would also provide free insurance cover
· Industrial rate cuts - for micro industries, PSBs have reduced loan rates by 100 bps, while for small industries, they have reduced loan rates by 50 bps, and set up cells to redress grievances regarding these loans

The Indian Banks Association (IBA) has justified the threshold of Rs.20 lakh for interest rate relief announced for home loan borrowers, saying that the package will take care of housing requirements of the common man. However industry body Assocham has termed the home loans package by PSBs as highly inadequate, demanding that the government peg the interest rate on housing loans up to Rs.30 lakh at 6% and at 8.5% for loans above this amount. Among other negatives for the measure is that, that existing borrowers from private sector banks will not be able to transfer their loans to PSBs.

After the move from PSBs, all eyes are also on private sector banks, especially the larger ones such as HDFC, Axis and ICICI to follow suit. Until that time, its wait and watch for consumers.

Domestic India automobile sales plummet, Exports provide some relief

India’s automobile sales plummeted in November, seeing one of the biggest falls, even as exports spiked by 62% during the month. According to the latest figures released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), tighter lending by banks and slowing economy have led to auto sales plunging by 18% in the domestic market in the month of November as against the figures in the same month last year.

Category wise, commercial vehicle sales almost halved (50%) in November to 20,637 units from 40,879 units in the same month last year, while passenger car sales dropped comparatively less (20%) to 83,059 units from 1,03,031 units in the same month last year. Demand for passenger cars in India has fell in four of the past five months.
In the two-wheeler segment, two-wheeler sales fell 15% to 5,67,502 units from 6,65,181 units in the same period last year while motorcycle sales fell 20% to 4,31,171 units as against 5,40,553 units in the corresponding month a year ago.

Exports have however been the saving grace this month, total vehicles exports rising by 62% to 146,337 units in November against 90,398 units in the same month last year, led by passenger vehicles, motorcycles, scooters and three-wheelers. Break up among the export figures show that, passenger car exports rose almost twice at 34,607 units compared with 15,464 units in the year-ago period. Two-wheeler exports jumped 52% in November to 89,245 units compared with 59,041 units in the year-ago period. And motorcycle exports rose a similar 51% to 85,549 units from 56,739 units in the corresponding month 2007.

However experts feel that this is not the right period to gauge the automobile sector’s performance. The picture would be clear only by February- March, as by then some impact of the excise duty cut would have been felt and if financing situation improves, sales could pick up.

The fall in sales in India came as a blow to carmakers who were hoping that emerging markets like India, China, Russia and South America would make up for falling demand in developed markets.

Sales have plunged hugely this year across developed markets like the United States, Japan and Europe, as well as emerging economies like China and Russia, forcing automakers to revisit their plans for developing markets.

“Service Sector To Push India’s Economic growth to 7.5-8% this Fiscal”

Chief Economic Advisor (CEA)of India expect the service sector to act as a stabilizer to the country’s economy, helping it grow by 7.5-8% in the current financial year. His views come amidst fear that even the service sector which has till now been relatively immune to drastic slowdown, will get negatively affected in a major way in the remaining months of 2008-09.

The CEA however admitted that even the services sectors like the other sectors has seen slow down in the growth momentum this year. He however believes that the cyclical decline for the services sector would be comparatively much less than the manufacturing sector.

Service sector is a major part of the Indian economy, with it dominating the economic scene especially in recent times. IT and IT enabled services (ITES) have been the cynosure of the country’s development, putting in on the world map. Such positive forecasts would do a world of good for the sector, even as the country tries to defend itself from the pains of global recession. But this has to be seen in perspective with global economic growth especially from US that has gone into recession, and which accounts for around 50% of the IT and ITES portfolio.

LIC to bolster Indian Equity Market with its Investment Plan

India’s largest life insurer and also the largest domestic investment institution, Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) plans to invest Rs 31,000 cr in equities and corporate bonds in the next four months. Out of the total amount, LIC would invest Rs 11,000 cr in stocks and Rs 20,000 cr in non-convertible debentures. LIC could bolster the equity markets, especially at a time when FIIs are selling off causing huge declines in the market. Even the insurer has been affected by the slump in the equity markets, with it seeing a fall in unit-linked policies, even though traditional policies such as endowment policies appear to be staging a comeback. LIC may invest a total of Rs 40,000 cr in equities during the current fiscal, although it is still awaiting a reply from IRDA on its request to hike the cap on investment in an individual company.

The company plans to use mobilisation from its new scheme, Jeevan Aastha, which guarantees benefits on maturity and death, to invest in debt instruments as returns are guaranteed. Of the Rs 25,000 cr it has targeted from the new scheme, 50% will be invested in government bonds while the balance will be invested in other debt instruments. The company this year has seen a definite increase in the number of corporates approaching it for investment especially in NCDs and rated papers.

Until, November this year, LIC has invested Rs 1,02,476 cr compared with Rs 97,738 cr a year ago. This break-up includes Rs 36,311 cr in government bonds, Rs 23,190 cr in debentures and bonds, Rs 12,372 cr in infrastructure, Rs 1,342 cr as project loans, Rs 164 cr in IPOs ( a relatively small amount reflection the mood of the IPO market in the country) and Rs 29,000 cr in equities (secondary market).

Mumbai Terror Attack Reveal New Strategy of Terrorists

With new terror strike in Mumbai terrorist have unveiled their new strategy of taking seize of economic hubs, random killing and fighting pitch battles with police force rather than blowing up locations in quick succession.

The strategy seems to be clearly aimed at denting the normal business life by taking seize of economic hub and preventing it functioning, thus causing enormous damage. These prolonged pitch battles are aimed at ruining the economic life and order as they did it in J&K. This has been extremely successful in long run, when frequent terrorist strikes have killed the economy. By taking aim at major business hotels they have already signaled that Mumbai is not going to remain safe place to do business.

Another aspect of their economic terrorism is taking tourists hostage and attacking tourist hotspots like Colaba. India has already entered in bad map of foreign tourist with one after another city becoming unsafe for them. This will have larger impact on tourism and hospitality industry both in Mumbai and rest of the country.

Further, random targeting of civilians at all possible public place is going to play havoc in the minds of citizens will change the mobility pattern of urban population in India. Any future replication of this Mumbai terror attack in other cities is going create major trouble for economic growth of the country.

Avoiding Unemployment as Poll Issue

Employment has suddenly emerged as the issue that is jolting the confidence of both politicians and businessmen alike. The government once again caught off-guard, is in mood of denial as it did in case of credit crisis and economic slowdown. The government seems to not woken up to the reality or it’s the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who wants to divert the attention by making claims about the economic growth. Mr Singh once again in a summit last week said that India would achieve next year’s growth target of 8%, when a few weeks back they were claiming it would be 7%.

Rising unemployment rate during elections are major embarrassment to any government, UPA recognises this fact and thus avoid any talk on the issue to prevent its escalation in media. The government and PM has kept on making statements about India’s miraculous future growth despite global slowdown. Finance Minister has severely criticized reports on layoff by industry and suggested industry could manage downturn without downsizing. The government has been trying to hush-up the matter. It want to keep the issue of unemployment under carpet to avoid any further jolt to its chances of winning election.

Almost every sector in the industry be it retailing, technology, automotive, textiles and exports are under pressure to shed labour and bring down production to avoid any closure. Government has no business in directly supporting industries in this business cycle, it should have taken steps to boost economic growth but it has even failed on this count.

Textile, Jewellery & Auto-components- Unemployment rises amongst India’s Forex Earners

The global economic slowdown has impacted different sectors with varied degree of severity. Textiles and Gems & Jewellery sector, which are one of the biggest contributor’s of India’s exports earnings, are in shambles. Both the sectors are tied with discretionary consumption of global clientele for their produce thus heavily dependent on global market. With discretionary consumption taking nose dive with economic uncertainty all over the world, consumptions of products likes jewellery and garments have fallen dramatically.

This has direct impact on the economic viability of business units related to these two sectors. As a large number of units in these sectors are small and medium size units and most of the workforce belong to unorganised sector. As the new orders have dried out, a large number of these SME units have shut shops leaving workers in lurch. Around 50,000 works have lost jobs in gems & jewellery industry, which expects job losses to go further. Textile industry also expects to cut 5 lakh employees in next five months. Adding to the woe is auto components industry, which in last few years had become darling of global automotive giants, as automobile industry faces question of declining demand the small components manufactures are already showing door to the contact labourers.

DLF enters Asset Management Business

DLF Pramerica, a JV between India’s largest realty firm DLF and Prudential Financial Inc (PFI) of the US, that got an in-principle approval to set up an asset management company (AMC) from the SEBI, expects to break even within three to five years in the business.

PFI is the majority shareholder in the JV with 61%, while DLF will own the remaining 39.5%. Pramerica is the brand name used by PFI in India and other select countries. The asset management business will have a capital base of $45 mn and will be based in Mumbai. DLF Pramerica Mutual Fund is a sub-brand under the umbrella brand of DLF Pramerica. The fund venture, DLF Pramerica Asset Managers Pvt Ltd, is headed by Vijay Mantri, who joined in April from the Indian fund unit of Deutsche Bank.

The AMC will provide full range of mutual fund and investment products, including domestic and international mutual funds to customers. Prudential Financial has assets under management of around $602 bn as on 30 September, 2008 and has operations in US, Asia, Europe and Latin America.

DLF Pramerica joins more than 20 firms looking to break into the Indian fund industry, which saw its assets grow more than four-fold to Rs 5.5 trillion rupees in five year ending 2007. According to a recent McKinsey report, the total AUM of the Indian mutual fund industry could grow to $350-440 bn by 2012, expanding 33% annually. While the revenue and profit (PAT) pools of Indian AMCs are pegged at $542 mn and $220 mn respectively, it is at par with fund houses in developed economies. Operating profits for AMCs in India, as a percentage of average assets under management, were at 32 basis points in 2006-07, while the number was 12 bps in UK, 17 bps in Germany and 18 bps in the US, in the same time frame, the McKinsey report said.

Even though many players are entering the mutual fund space, the space itself is seeing lots of turmoil. Assets have shrunk 28% to Rs 3.9 trillion this year due to a stunning 51.5% slump in India's benchmark index and outflows from fixed income funds. The mutual fund industry in India, in recent times, has seen a wave of redemptions especially in the debt schemes.

The sector is also seeing consolidation, recently Religare-Aegon AMC, which had recently started operations, acquired Lotus India AMC. The latter has begun operations in 2005. Even DLF Pramerica, has made its intentions clears, saying that it would also look at the inorganic growth route also in addition to the organic route, especially when there there were AMCs for sale available in the market.

Inflation falls to Single digit at 8.9%

In an unexpected happening, WPI inflation fell to single digit numbers for the first time in 5 months, falling by 174 bps from the previous week to 8.98% for the week ended November 1, 2008. The point-to-point inflation rate also fell the most in at least 18 years. The reading was way below average estimate of economists, which ranged between 10.2-10.5%. This comes as welcome signal for the economy, reeling from low growth numbers, tight liquidity and worries of global economic recession. The fall in inflation has also given the Reserve Bank of India, more headroom to cut rates, bringing out another positive aspect of the fall in inflation, fall in rates could be a big boost for the domestic economy reeling from slowing growth.

What aided the sharpest-ever fall in WPI inflation in over five months was the slump in the prices of various petroleum-based fuels such as naphtha, aviation turbine fuel (ATF), furnace oil and light diesel oil as global crude prices plummeted from $145 a barrel in July to $56-60 a barrel. The energy index that comprises of around 15% of the total index dropped 9.22%, compared with 14.09% in the previous week, after Indian oil marketing companies cut the price of jet fuel by 17%. The index of manufactured products that includes cooking oil and steel products, with a 63.7% weighting in the inflation basket, dropped to 8.06% compared with 9.09% a week ago.

Apart from others who had voiced similar views in the recent past, it was only earlier this week that the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Chairman, Suresh Tendulkar, said: “Inflation seems to be on the decline as international commodity prices are coming down and the domestic harvest is good. Early next year, inflation would be in single digit.”

Automotive goes out of gear with drastic sales decline

Until recently, India's market had been racing ahead, posting double-digit growth, spurred by a fast-growing economy that had created a new, affluent group, Butt high borrowing costs and new tough loan conditions as a result of the global credit crunch has hit the economy growth, with the latest sector to face the brunt is the auto industry.

India's domestic car sales fell by 6.6% in October, the fastest drop in more than three years, as consumer loans dried up amid a global credit crunch, even as a festive season failed to revive the auto industry. according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). Cumulative vehicle sales growth for the seven months to October stood at 5.64% from 10.07% growth in the April-September period. Earlier this year, SIAM had forecast overall vehicle sales growth of 12-15% for the financial year to March 2009.

Close introspection of the figures released show that, car sales in the domestic market plunged in October with a 6.59% fall to 98,900 cars against 1.05 lakh in the same month last year. Motorcycles sales were down 18.17% to 5.38 lakh against 6.57 lakh last year. Similarly, trucks and buses sales fell 50% to 11,786 vehicles from 23,352 during the same period. Scooters and passenger three-wheelers were the only two segments that posted positive growth of 4.4% and 16%, respectively. Exports also grew 41.16% to 1.44 lakh in October against 1.02 lakh the same month last year.

SIAM will review its sales forecast for the year ending March 31 after the November figures are announced next month. SIAM has already cut its full-year growth forecast to between 8-10% from an earlier estimate of 12-13%.

Automotive Industry in India - India's automotive industry, produces 1.5 mn vehicles annually, and is worth $34 bn a year, contributing 5% of the country's GDP.

Montek and Chidambaram mock India’s Economic Scenario

Montek Singh and Mr. Chidambaram for past few days have been giving some really exaggerating statements about the economy. They continue to assert that Indian economy will grow at 8%. Now, how that suppose to happen. The global credit lending is expected to come down drastically during next year and India desperately needs it to continue its infrastructure and capex. Indian companies were already raising debt for international market as credit rates in India were high. How are Indian companies expected to grow at same rate in this inconducive economic environment? Plus they were quick to add how fundamentally strong Indian economy is.

How come economy be fundamentally strong where commodities are playing havoc to the economy, crude prices have endangered the aviation sector and is pushing inflation, housing boom is about to go bust with high credit rates and our exports are threatened due to global slowdown. They were not done yet, they made another comment on liquidity situation.

Yes there is liquidity problem, there are not many ready to lend to consumers and corporates are finding it hard to credit at lower rate (which is next to impossible). There is credit problem in the economy, but what about the money that FIIs have brought into the market by selling share and converting them into dollars! The problem, we don’t think is of liquidity in the capital markets but of leveraging and speculation on cheaply borrowed money. Now that it is difficult to leverage and get cheap credit there aren’t many players to do so in the stock markets. So, we have more and more selling and less numbers of buyers.

India to sign FTA with European Union and ASEAN

Indian government will be signing two trade agreements with two major trade blocks in next six months. India will free trade agreements with European Union (EU) and Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). India will formalize India-EU Trade and Investment agreement by beginning of next year. The agreement is expected to double the Indo-EU trade to Euro100 Bn in next five years.

Similarly, India is also expected to sign free trade agreement with ASEAN for trade in goods. This agreement will be signed during India-ASEAN summit and it will also base for commencing talks on agreement in investments and services. India already had a FTA with one of the ASEAN member, Thailand. India already has trade imbalance with ASEAN block. India’s exports to ASEAN for last financial year stood at USD16 Bn, while’s India’s imports from ASEAN nations stood at USD24 Bn.

India already has trade imbalance with ASEAN and post FTA regime is expected to widen this gap. But, India expects boost its position through the trade agreement as it is facing stiff competition from countries like China.

UNCTAD ranks India as the 2nd most preferred FDI destination

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its ‘World Investment Report 2008’ has ranked India as the second most-favored location for foreign investment in 2008, behind China but ahead of Russia and Brazil. China and India are the two top preferred destinations not only for the current year but for the next three years (2008-2010) as per the report.

Growth in FDI has been on the back of robust economic growth, improved investment environment and further opening up of telecommunication, retail and other sectors. More than a quarter of 300 international retailers told UNCTAD that they have either opened their first store in India during 2007 or are planning to do so in the near future. Large scale investment transnational corporations like Oracle, Holcim and Matsushita has further bolstered the FDI inflow.

India received the fourth largest amount of FDI inflows in 2007 in Asia (after China, Hong Kong and Singapore), at $23 bn, growing by around 17% over $ 20 billion in 2006. Significantly, India is fast giving tough competition to the Singapore that ranked third in Asia in the amount of FDI inflows. India was also the fourth-largest source of FDI in Asia, as Indian companies invested $13.64 bn abroad in 2007, up more than 6% compared with $12.84 bn in the previous year.

The country has improved its ranking in the inward FDI performance index (which measures the flow of foreign investment into a country relative to its GDP) from 110 in 2006 to 106 in 2007, which is above Germany and Taiwan, but below that of Hong Kong and Indonesia. The report also talks about a survey by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), in which Japanese transnational manufacturing companies have rated India higher than China for establishing business operations.

Though the report appeared bullish on India due to the interest shown by the likes of Wal-Mart, and expansion by auto giants, it also warned of possible hurdles which would make it tough for India to reach the annual inflow target of $50 bn by 2010, of which poor infrastructure emerged as the biggest roadblock. Other experts also believe that the global liquidity crunch may impact FDI inflows into the country.

Goldman Sachs, Macquarie Research rule out rate hike by RBI, expects interest rates to ease in early 2009

Goldman Sachs in its latest report has ruled out any hike in interest rate by the RBI, considering the current tightness in liquidity condition and expected decline in the inflation by early 2009. As per the report, the current tight liquidity and slow growth, suggests that the RBI may use the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) and the cash reserve ratio (CRR) to ease liquidity, hence any further hike by CRR is also ruled out. Further the investment major expects the RBI to have a rate cut in the January-March quarter of 2009, to spruce up growth, as the macro concern shifts from high inflation to falling growth. As per the report inflation is expected to drop considerably in early-2009, due to slowing demand and drop in commodity prices.

Macquarie research too expects the RBI to hold interest rate steady at present level at its next policy review on October 24. Macquarie also expects the RBI to cut interest rates in 2009 and the CRR for banks by around 200 bps. Earlier, Macquarie had earlier forecasted a 25 bps hike in the repo rate to 9.25%, but it had revised its forecast due to the global financial problems.